The government is swimming against the tide on Westpac’s Adani decision

No one is going to make even short-term profits out of the Adani coal mine, with its huge upfront capital investment, unless they get a substantial subsidy from the taxpayer. And the long-term prospects look grim. David Peetz and Georgina Murray (Griffith University) explain that those who argue that Westpac’s decision was “illogical” are swimming against both the financial and technological tides.

Why biased budget forecasts make poor politics

Budget outcomes have continued to surprise because of systematic revenue forecast errors by Treasury, which dwarf actual policy changes in explaining changes to the budget bottom line. These are compounded by the wilful blindness of politicians, happy to use these forecasts to justify avoiding difficult decisions. John Daley and Danielle Wood (Grattan Institute) explain.

WA’s economic mismanagement is not a reason to review how the GST is carved up

The questions in the terms of reference, that the Treasurer has given to the Productivity Commission, were answered almost five years ago by a similar inquiry, which found many of the concerns about the current system were overstated. And, contrary to the Treasurer’s insinuation that “the current approach of horizontal fiscal equalisation creates disincentives for reform”, the previous inquiry concluded there was not enough evidence of efficiency losses in the economy. Saul Easlake (University of Tasmania) explains.

Latest Murray-Darling squabble sheds light on the plan’s flaws

Lin Crase (University of South Australia) explains that federal governments using the plan have found shifting water away from irrigation at least as difficult and costly as it is for the states.

Government response to Infrastructure Australia offers no grounds for optimism

For as long as the government avoids rigorous, transparent processes, there is no reason to expect any real discipline in how it spends infrastructure dollars. Marion Terrill and Hugh Batrouney (Grattan Institute) expect more regional boondoggles until we can tie the government to the mast of disciplined investment.

More equal societies perform better

Australia is not the egalitarian nation that many people think it is. Rather, in terms of wealth inequalities, we’re mid-ranking on the international league table and we’re becoming more unequal. Frank Stilwell (University of Sydney) explains why that matters and the role that reintroduction of an inheritance tax might play.

Spectacular cost blowouts show need to keep governments honest on transport

Marion Terrill (Grattan Institute) writes that most transport infrastructure projects come in reasonably close to their original announced cost. The problem is that when projects do run over, it can be spectacular. The main culprit for this startling finding is premature announcements by politicians.

Gonski model was corrupted, but Labor and Coalition are both to blame

The Gonski report was designed to clean up Australia’s opaque and complex system of school funding and address significant inequalities by establishing a new needs-based funding model, but then messy politics got in the way at the point of implementation. Glenn C. Savage (University of Melbourne) Steven Lewis (The University of Queensland) argue that the result was a perversion of the Gonski ideal – an inconsistent patchwork of approaches across the nation that protected the vested interests of non-government schools.

Turnbull announces a new refugee plan, but will it solve the crisis?

Alex Reilly (University of Adelaide) questions why the government is extending the source countries of its resettlement program and notes that the increase is merely a re-announcement of an Abbott Government pledge. While the Government will likely herald the benefits of regional co-operation, the announcement smacks more of cynical politics trumping common sense.

The democratic paradox

Brian McNair (Queensland University of Technology) explains that there is no necessary connection between liberalism and democracy. Our democracy is increasingly enabling the expression of illiberal, demagogic, populist viewpoints on key issues of our time such as migration and multiculturalism. The most accessible and easy to use communicative environment human beings have ever enjoyed is also one of political extremes in which he, or she who shouts loudest gets heard by the most people.

Liberal ideals of liberty have sometimes been confused with other less liberal ideas

Gregory Melleuish (University of Wollongong) explains that liberal ideals of liberty are sometimes confused with other less liberal ideas.

The evidence is against ‘bigger is better’ for local government

Brian Dollery (University of New England) explains that the financial performance of local authorities does not improve as advocates of amalgamation contend. On the contrary, amalgamated municipalities often perform worse than their unmerged counterparts.

Where reform is repressed on ostensibly pragmatic grounds, the result may be to inflame populist reaction

Most experts say globalisation spreads wealth, bringing people out of poverty and nations closer together. But right now some politicians and their supporters are arguing it simply increases inequality. Wesley Widmaier (Griffith University) explains why populist movements in the US have been fanned by the perceived lack of banking reform following the global financial crisis.

China will be the winner if US backs out of the TPP

Nicholas Ross Smith (University of Auckland) writes that, if Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump make good on their pledge to torpedo the Trans-Pacific Partnership if elected, the United States will not only miss an opportunity to consolidate its position in Asia-Pacific, it will also allow China to emerge as the uncontested trade power there.

For the English, Brexit will mean economic and political pain

Stephen King (Monash University) explains that the EU leaders have a strong incentive to make the UK's ‘exit conditions’ as onerous and costly as possible – so as to deter other nations from also exiting the EU. Incentives for Scotland and Northern Ireland to stay with the EU will figure prominently and the remaining England and Wales are likely to face the highest level of default restrictions on trade with the EU (including with Scotland and Northern Ireland). Great Britain is likely to disintegrate rapidly over the next two years and the standard of living will decline, particularly in the midlands and northern parts of England.

Brexit: act in haste…

Mark Beeson (University of Western Australia) reflects on Brexit and argues that none of the defining problems of the 20th century can be tackled without more co-operation rather than less. The problems are difficult – some possibly irresolvable – but without mechanisms with which to tackle them, solutions are not even theoretically viable. A retreat into insularity, parochialism and nostalgia for the 19th century are plainly not the answers.

Does ASIC already have the powers of a royal commission into banking?

Anna Olijnyk (University of Adelaide) explains in The Conversation that, if the aim is to investigate and prosecute specific instances of suspected breaches, then ASIC is well equipped to do this on its own in a way that a royal commission could not. However, if the aim is to examine the industry and system as a whole, a royal commission would have broader scope to do this.

Ruling, not governing – our politicians have little time or respect for policy

Peter van Onselen (University of Western Australia) and Wayne Errington (University of Adelaide) write in The Conversation that the present generation of leaders has expert knowledge about communicating, campaigning and focus groups but little time or respect for the best traditions of government: the patient development of policy formulated with the assistance of a professional public service. The pursuit of government for the sake of power outweighs the purpose for achieving it.

The ‘will of the people’ is the bastardisation of democracy

Jean-Paul Gagnon (Australian Catholic University) and Mark Chou (Australian Catholic University) explain in The Conversation that, if politicians are serious about acting on the “will of the people”, then reforming Australia’s electoral system should be on the agenda. Otherwise, phrases which invoke "the will of the people" are simply hubris designed to delegitimise their opponents both within parliament and more broadly, and to shut down debate. For democracy to work properly, it requires voters and their representatives to work together to achieve the most palatable ends for Australians.

Political Amnesia – How We Forgot How To Govern

Nicholas Barry (La Trobe University) reviews Laura Tingle's essay in The Conversation. He highlights that debate, serious discussion and deliberation are valued highly in a democracy not just for their own sake, but because they are considered essential to testing the quality of ideas and arguments. Increasingly, decision-makers in Canberra and beyond seem to have forgotten this age-old lesson of democratic politics. The quality of policymaking in Australia may be strengthened if they begin to remember it.