Agriculture Minister foreshadows a return to sensible agriculture policy rhetoric?

Minister for Agriculture, Barnaby Joyce MP, has demonstrated a sense of proportion in respect of Australia's place in the global food market, in contrast to many politicians and industry leaders or lobbyists. Speaking at the Farm Writer's Association of NSW on 25 July and again today on Sky News, the Agriculture Minister stated that “We’re not going to be the food basket of Asia. We’ve got to dispense with that rhetoric. It’s ridiculous."

This would seem to be a significant (and welcome) departure from standard political rhetoric, particularly over the last half dozen years or so, that sees Australian positioned as the "food bowl of Asia".

• Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard MP spoke about (Address to the Global Foundation’s Summit Dinner 3 May 2012) "Australia’s potential to become a regional food superpower".

• Tony Abbott MP, as opposition leader (media transcript 21 June 2013) wanted "to try to get more people into the north so that we can be the food bowl to Asia that we should be".

• Former trade minister Craig Emerson MP (Govt pushes Asian food bowl plan, foreign investment 12 March 2012) told the ABC in an interview that "The old phraseology is we could be the food bowl for Asia. That's an idea that's been around for a long time but we can make that a reality."

• The Liberal Party, in its policy document on Developing Northern Australia, sees "huge potential to develop Northern Australia as a significant, high quality food bowl".

• Andrew Robb MP, for example in Food Bowl Within Reach (21 June 2013), has been a prominent promoter for the development of "a food bowl that could double Australia's agricultural output".

• Everald Compton, for example in Creating the Great Australian Food Bowl, talks about "our capacity to become the food bowl of the world"

Policy documents have been more circumspect, but still contain elements of this rhetorical piffle.

• The recent Green Paper on developing northern Australia states that "the north's endowment of land and water suggest there is potential for the north to become a major ‘food bowl’" (p53). 

• The White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century states that "Our agriculture and food sector will be transformed by the changes occurring in Asia" (p221).

It is interesting to note that, subsequent to the Agriculture Minister's recent comments, Trade Minister Andrew Robb MP issued a media release (Filling neighbours’ food bowl key to prosperity 31 July 2014) which seems to bridge the gap between his previous food bowl rhetoric and the Agriculture Minister's more balanced view. He states that "It is always wise to keep a sense of proportion but I’m an optimist when it comes to this question: we may not become the food bowl of Asia but we can become a key supplier. One of several food bowls, if you like."

The Agriculture Minister acknowledges that Australia is a small player globally. He notes that “Even in China, I think their beef herd is about eight times the size of ours, so let’s stop talking about that.” For 2012, the Food and Agriculture Organisation records that Australia produced just 1.1 per cent of net world agricultural production by value (FAOstat). Australia could double its agricultural production and the world would hardly notice, except perhaps in a couple of markets - notably wheat, where Australia contributes around 5 per cent of world production.

Sensibly, the Agriculture Minister seems to foreshadow a change in policy focus (or at least political rhetoric) from volumes to value. "What we do have is a premium product and, with the right supply chains, a premium product gets a premium price." And that is exactly the area in which Australian agricultural policy should be focused, and agricultural policy papers have recognised this (see below).

But the Agriculture Minister's policy stance also shows policy depth and sensitivity in how our Asian neighbors (who are also our customers and our competitors) may view Australia's rhetoric. He notes that “We’re going to be selling a premium product to a premium market that is not going to be a threat to the Chinese farmers and to the Philippine farmers and the Vietnamese farmers and the other (regional) farmers”. Australia is seen as a producer of quality products. If we were to flood Asian markets, as implied in the rhetoric of aiming to double agicultural production, that could be seen as a considerable threat to Asian agricultural producers, by displacing their production or driving down the prices they receive.

It should be noted that agriculture policy documents have tended to be a lot more grounded that the political rhetoric.

• The recent issues paper for the Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper has no mention of "food bowl". It sensibly notes that "With rising (Asian) populations in middle and higher income brackets, this also provides an opportunity for exports of food and fibre products that can be sold at price premiums due to quality, environmental standards and other desired characteristics" (p30). However, it also notes that "Access for Australia’s agricultural products into overseas markets can be challenging" (p31).

• This reflects the earlier National Food Plan released by the previous (ALP) Argiculture Minister, Senator Joe Ludwig (25 May 2013). It noted that "Population and income growth in the region will increase demand for food products and services of higher quality and with strong product integrity. As a supplier of high–value, sophisticated processed food products, agricultural commodities and services, Australia can help meet this demand" (p26).

• And, of course, the report from from the Northern Australia Land and Water Taskforce (Sustainable development of northern Australia December 2009) saw a capacity for only limited expansion of small scale irrigation-supported agriculture and beef production, due to the environmental realities of northern Australia. Furthermore, it noted that "It is estimated that around 20,000 hectares are currently irrigated in northern Australia using groundwater resources. By overlaying the regional availability of groundwater with an assessment of the regional availability of suitable agricultural soils, it is estimated that an area of approximately 20,000–40,000 hectares of new intensive agriculture could be supported by potentially available groundwater" (p13). While this represent perhaps a doubling of potential arable land in the region, it is insignificant when compared with the substantial quantities of under-utilsed farmland in south-eastern Australia.